We release a new version of QRISK®2 every spring, usually in April.
Annual updates are required because of:
We updated the coefficients for the QRISK®2-2017 algorithm using the latest version of the QResearch® database available at the time. The annual update documentation linked from the 2017 part of the site shows details of how risk factor recording and CVD incidence rates have changed over time.
In summary, CVD rates continue to decline and there continues to be an improvement in recording of self-assigned ethnicity over time.
The improvement in recording of ethnicity has resulted in more accurate estimation of risk for the different ethnic groups as it's based on a much larger sample size. The practical result is an increase in the weighting applied to the non-white ethnic groups which will result in a small increase to the corresponding risk scores.
As with any re-calibration, there are other changes to the relative risks given to the various input parameters. This is just what happens when a model is fitted to new data.
That's just fine. They both work very well. We recommend that those who integrate QRISK®2 into their own systems move to the QRISK®2-2017 score by the autumn -- this means that they have the freedom to schedule the work needed into a convenient point of their release cycle.
QRISK®3 was published in the BMJ on 23rd May 2017. You can find the calculator here:
QRISK®3 includes more factors than QRISK®2 to help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.
Yes. QRISK®3 has been validated on a separate group of practices from that used to develop the score and the performance is very good. See the academic paper for more details.
It's the same science and team behind the score, and the way that we intend it to be used remains exactly the same. In many ways it is very similar to our usual annual updates -- however, we thought that as we are introducing several new parameters, we'd upgrade its major version number.
QRISK®2-2017 will be the last version of QRISK®2 that we will produce. QRISK®3 will be the standard version of QRISK® shipped in our software development kits in 2018, so all implementations will become QRISK®3 in due course.